Bayesian Semiparametric Multi-State Models

Multi-state models provide a unified framework for the description of the evolution of discrete phenomena in continuous time. One particular example are Markov processes which can be characterised by a set of time-constant transition intensities between the states. In this paper, we will extend such parametric approaches to semiparametric models with flexible transition intensities based on Bayesian versions of penalised splines. The transition intensities will be modelled as smooth functions of time and can further be related to parametric as well as nonparametric covariate effects. Covariates with time-varying effects and frailty terms can be included in addition. Inference will be conducted either fully Bayesian using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques or empirically Bayesian based on a mixed model representation. A counting process representation of semiparametric multi-state models provides the likelihood formula and also forms the basis for model validation via martingale residual processes. As an application, we will consider human sleep data with a discrete set of sleep states such as REM and Non-REM phases. In this case, simple parametric approaches are inappropriate since the dynamics underlying human sleep are strongly varying throughout the night and individual-specific variation has to be accounted for using covariate information and frailty terms

Creación de una empresa para la importación de equipos de desminado humanitario como estrategia competitiva paera Ituango - Antioquia

1 TÍTULO DE LA INVESTIGACIÓN 2 PROBLEMA DE INVESTIGACIÓN 3 OBJETIVO DE LA INVESTIGACIÓN 3.1 OBJETIVO GENERAL 3.2 OBJETIVOS ESPECIFICOS 4 JUSTFICACIÓN Y DELIMITACIÓN DE LA INVESTIGACIÓN 4.1 JUSTIFICACIÓN 5 MARCO DE REFERENCIA DE LA INVESTIGACIÓN 5.1 MARCO TEORICO 5.1.1 El Tratado de Ottawa 3.1.2 Elementos Poner término al empleo Prohibición del desarrollo y de la producción Prohibición del almacenamiento Prohibición de la transferencia 5.1.3 Situación general de las Minas Antipersonales en Colombia 5.1.4 Elementos adicionales del problema en Colombia 5.2 MARCO CONCEPTUAL 5.3 MARCO LEGAL 5.3.1 LEY 554 DE 2000, (Enero 14) 5.3.2 LEY 759 DE 2002, (julio 25) 5.3.3 DECRETO 2150 DE 1995, (Diciembre 05) 5.3.4 LEY 1421 DE 2010 5.3.5 DECRETO 3750 DE 2011 5.3.6 ACREDITACION PARA DESARROLLAR DESMINADO EN COLOMBIA 5.4 MARCO AUTO-REFERENCIAL 6 TIPO DE INVESTIGACIÓN 7 DISEÑO METODOLÓGICO 8 RECURSOS 9 CRONOGRAMA 10 RESUMEN DEL PROYECTO 11 DESCRIPCIÓN DEL PROYECTO 11.1 Caracterización de la población a ser atendida 11.2 Acción humanitaria en la salud, lo social, lo económico y lo productivo 11.2.1 Revisión sistemática del avance público nacional y mundial de la información y del conocimiento actual 11.2.1.1 Mundial: 11.2.1.2 Piloto gran hermano 11.2.2 La integración de indicadores socio-económicos dentro la encuesta nacional de impacto de minas terrestres en mozambique 11.2.2.1 Efectos económicos de minas terrestres - sanskimost municipio, bosnia y Herzegovina 11.2.2.2 Nacional 11.2.2.3 Procesamiento espacial de eventos conminas terrestres en Colombia 11.2.2.4 Tecnologías para la detección de minas: 11.2.2.5 Tecnologías para la detección de minas: 11.3 HIPÓTESIS 12 CAPITULO I NORMAS GENERALES DEL DESMINADO HUMANITARIO 12.1 MEDIDAS DE SEGURIDAD EN EL SITIO DE TRABAJO 12.1.1 Disposiciones y Procedimientos en el Sitio de Trabajo 12.2 Estudio no técnico 12.3 Estudio técnico 13 CAPITULO II: MÉTODOS, PROCEDIMIENTOS Y GENERALIDADES 13.1 Métodos 13.2 Técnicas y procedimientos Técnica y procedimiento de Apertura de Franja Técnica y procedimiento del encendido y calibrado del detector MINELAB Técnica y procedimiento de Apertura de Franja Técnica y procedimiento de búsqueda de alambre trampa y corte de maleza Técnica y procedimiento de barrido Técnicas de destrucción de las existencias Criterios medioambientales Determinación de la Tecnología apropiada 14 CAPITULO III: MAQUINARIA UTILIZADA PARA EL PROCESO DE DESMINADO BIBLIOGRAFÍAPregradoProfesional en Comercio InternacionalComercio Internaciona

Mission planning with multiconstellation for urban environments

Un posicionamiento mediante un servicio GNSS (sistema global de navegación por satélite) solo es posible con la recepción simultánea de la señal de al menos cuatro satélites. La probabilidad de pérdida de visibilidad de los satélites GNSS en entornos urbanos es especialmente crítica por los elementos arquitecturales propios de una ciudad, y esto puede imposibilitar la localización de un receptor. Esto será crucial para ciertas aplicaciones, por ejemplo, un vehículo transportador de valores que requiera un monitoreo continuo de su posición. Este trabajo describe un método de planificación de rutas urbanas en función de las necesidades de posicionamiento, integrando el cálculo de la posición de los satélites a través de la mecánica orbital, con imágenes de Google Street View y segmentación semántica con técnicas de Deep Learning. De esta manera, predecir la relación de visibilidad entre un observador y los satélites de un servicio GNSS.Geolocation through a GNSS service (Global Navigation Satellite System) is only possible with the simultaneous reception of the signal from at least four satellites. The probability of loss of visibility of GNSS satellites in urban environments is especially critical due to the architectural elements typical of a city, making it impossible to locate a receiver. This will be crucial for certain applications, for example, an armored car carrying valuables requires continuous position monitoring. This paper describes a method for a mission planning in urban environments, according to the needs of positioning. integrating the calculation of satellites’ position through orbital mechanics, with Google Street View images and semantic segmentation with Deep Learning techniques. In this way, establish the visibility relationship between an observer and the satellites of a GNSS service. &nbsp

Observation of two-beam collective scattering phenomena in a Bose-Einstein condensate

Different regimes of collective light scattering are observed when an elongated Bose-Einstein condensate is pumped by two noninterfering beams counterpropagating along its long axis. In the limit of small Rayleigh scattering rates, the presence of a second pump beam suppresses superradiance, whereas at large Rayleigh scattering rates it lowers the effective threshold power for collective light scattering. In the latter regime, the quench dynamics of the two-beam system are oscillatory, compared to monotonic in the single-beam case. In addition, the dependence on power, detuning, and atom number is explored. The observed features of the two-beam system qualitatively agree with the recent theoretical prediction of a supersolid crystalline phase of light and matter at large Rayleigh scattering rates.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Award 1506369)United States. Army Research Office (Grant W911NF-14-1-0003)United States. Air Force Office of Scientific Research (Grant FA9550-14-1-0035)United States. Office of Naval Research (Grant N00014-16-1-3141)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Award DGE 1144152

Pedestrian Behaviour Modeling and Simulation from Real Time Data Information

International audienceAccidents of pedestrians sometimes take lives, in Bucara-manga since 2012 pedestrian died by accidents are 179, and 2873 hurt, In a city as Bucaramanga, this means each day at least one pedestrian is involved in a accident. Therefore is necessary to know the causes of accidents in the way to decrease the accidents. One of many reasons to know the causes is with system dynamics, simulating the events of the Pedestrian behavior when accidents occur in risen cities. The implementation simulation joint with technology and research looking for saving lives, reducing the accidental rate, and to implementing or suggesting new policies from the government. This project is looking for the implementation of technology in video records and Deep Learning analysis for the service of the citizens, where a simulation model will be revealing the main variables which intervene in the pedestrian's behavior. As initials results, shows the methodology here implemented, can reach data which was insufficient before thanks to the cameras and software of objects detection , those are the data input for the simulation model, which after to implement a change in a particular spot of Bucaramanga is possible decrease the accident rate in 80% where pedestrians could be involved

Datacentric analysis to reduce pedestrians accidents: A case study in Colombia

International audienceSince 2012, in a case-study in Bucaramanga-Colombia, 179 pedestrians died in car accidents, and another 2873 pedestrians were injured. Each day, at least one passerby is involved in a tragedy. Knowing the causes to decrease accidents is crucial, and using system-dynamics to reproduce the collisions' events is critical to prevent further accidents. This work implements simulations to save lives by reducing the city's accidental rate and suggesting new safety policies to implement. Simulation's inputs are video recordings in some areas of the city. Deep Learning analysis of the images results in the segmentation of the different objects in the scene, and an interaction model identifies the primary reasons which prevail in the pedestrians or vehicles' behaviours. The first and most efficient safety policy to implement-validated by our simulations-would be to build speed bumps in specific places before the crossings reducing the accident rate by 80%

Delivery of drugs, proteins and genes into cells using transferrin as a ligand for receptor-mediated endocytosis

Transferrin, an iron-transporting serum glycoprotein, is efficiently taken up into cells by the process of receptor-mediated endocytosis. Transferrin receptors are found on the surface of most proliferating cells, in elevated numbers on erythroblasts and on many kinds of tumors. The efficient cellular mechanism for uptake of transferrin has been subverted for the delivery of low-molecular-weight drugs, protein toxins, and liposomes by linkage of these agents to transferrin or to anti-transferrin receptor antibodies. Linkage may be via chemical conjugation procedures or by the generation of chimeric fusion proteins. Transferrin conjugated to DNA-binding compounds (e.g. polycations or intercalating agents) has been successfully used for the import of DNA molecules into cells. High-level gene expression is obtained only if endosome-disruptive agents such as influenza hemagglutinin peptides or adenovirus particles are included which release the DNA complex from intracellular vesicles into the cytoplasm

Comunicación, educación y contexto

Ante la situación mundial vivida en el año 2020 con la aparición de la pandemia del Covid-19 desde el Comité de Investigaciones de la Facultad de Ciencias de la Educación se proyectó la realización del I Encuentro Virtual de Grupos de Investigación, cuyas memorias tienen a su disposición en la presente obra, conformada por diez ponencias congregadas en cuatro secciones, las cuales se agruparon de acuerdo a la afinidad entre sus campos disciplinares y las líneas de investigación de los grupos que pertenecen a esta unidad académica. Estas áreas del conocimiento demuestran la diversidad de temáticas de investigación presentes en esta facultad que abarcan el discurso y las representaciones, la pedagogía, procesos investigativos sobre lectura y escritura, y, por último, la memoria, la historia y las políticas públicas.Given the global situation experienced in the year 2020 with the emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Research Committee of the Faculty of Education Sciences planned to hold the First Virtual Meeting of Research Groups, whose memories are available in this work, consisting of ten papers grouped into four sections, which were grouped according to the affinity between their disciplinary fields and the lines of research of the groups belonging to this academic unit. These areas of knowledge demonstrate the diversity of research topics present in this faculty, which include discourse and representations, pedagogy, research processes on reading and writing, and finally, memory, history and public policies.CONTENIDO Presentación....................................................................................7 Introducción. Apuestas colectivas de los docentes-investigadores de la Facultad de Ciencias de la Educación...................................11 Sección discurso y representaciones...........................................17 El grupo “Estudios del lenguaje y la Educación” y sus aportes a la Glotopolítica en Colombia .............................18 Proyecto: Creación de una estrategia audiovisual con base en storytelling para cambiar imaginarios urbanos: Caso Pereira Imaginada y sus croquis ciudadanos. ....................25 Proyecto Observatorio de Análisis del Discurso televisivo en el aula: Una propuesta integradora y didáctica para la formación de audiencia en la Escuela de Español y Comunicación Audiovisual.........................................................33 Sección pedagogía ........................................................................43 Sociología de la Infancia: Surgimiento de un campo de estudio, evolución y perspectivas...............................44 Concepciones de conflicto de estudiantes de Educación Básica. ..................................................................47 Sección lecto-escritura.................................................................53 Transformaciones en la escritura académica de estudiantes de maestría...........................................................54 Una apuesta de la Facultad, para la Facultad..............................61 Sección memoria, historia y políticas públicas..........................71 Laboratorios andantes: Fotografía estenopeica como interfaz cultural de la memoria colectiva..........................72 UTP 60 años: Legados y transformaciones en la construcción de saberes, sociedad y territorio – Vicerrectoría de Responsabilidad Social y Bienestar Universitario 10 años – Crecimiento Urbano, Historia Barrial y Política Local: Pereira 1930-1980. .............................................76 Proyecto: Gestión de Políticas Públicas Migratorias en la ciudad de Pereira, Colombia durante el periodo 2015-2019. ..................................................................................81 Conclusiones finales.....................................................................8

Updated guidance on the management of COVID-19:from an American Thoracic Society/European Respiratory Society coordinated International Task Force (29 July 2020)

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2. Consensus suggestions can standardise care, thereby improving outcomes and facilitating future research. METHODS: An International Task Force was composed and agreement regarding courses of action was measured using the Convergence of Opinion on Recommendations and Evidence (CORE) process. 70% agreement was necessary to make a consensus suggestion. RESULTS: The Task Force made consensus suggestions to treat patients with acute COVID-19 pneumonia with remdesivir and dexamethasone but suggested against hydroxychloroquine except in the context of a clinical trial; these are revisions of prior suggestions resulting from the interim publication of several randomised trials. It also suggested that COVID-19 patients with a venous thromboembolic event be treated with therapeutic anticoagulant therapy for 3 months. The Task Force was unable to reach sufficient agreement to yield consensus suggestions for the post-hospital care of COVID-19 survivors. The Task Force fell one vote shy of suggesting routine screening for depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder. CONCLUSIONS: The Task Force addressed questions related to pharmacotherapy in patients with COVID-19 and the post-hospital care of survivors, yielding several consensus suggestions. Management options for which there is insufficient agreement to formulate a suggestion represent research priorities.status: Published onlin